Before the season, the Green Bay Packers were listed as four-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys in what would be former head coach Mike McCarthy’s first trip to Lambeau Field since he was fired in 2018 after a home loss to the then 2-9 Arizona Cardinals. Now a week away from the game, DraftKings lists the point spread as the Cowboys being 4.5-point favorites, an 8.5-point swing that encapsulates how far the Packers have fallen in 2022.
Sitting with a 3-6 record after losing to a then 1-6 Detroit Lions team on Sunday, the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs are virtually impossible. FiveThirtyEight’s predictions give Green Bay just a five percent chance to make the playoffs and less than a one percent chance to win the division that they were overwhelming favorites to win back in early September.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are ranked as the fourth-best team in the league by the same predictions and are expected to finish with an average record of 12-5 under McCarthy. Dallas is simply the better team in this matchup, and it’s not out of line to think that McCarthy might try to run up the score on his former team after he was the first head coach in modern Packers history who was fired mid-season.
The total in this game is set at 43 points, a touchdown less than what it opened at in the preseason. If you can do the math here, that touchdown is expected to come off of Green Bay’s side of the scoreboard.
A big factor in this game is going to be injuries on the Packers’ side. Starting inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (knee) missed Week 9’s action after he went down the week before. In the game, outside linebacker Rashan Gary, running back Aaron Jones, receiver Romeo Doubs and Eric Stokes, all starters, left with injuries that left them in walking boots or crutches. Receiver Christian Watson is in concussion protocol for the second time in two weeks. Left tackle David Bakhtiari was in and out of the lineup throughout the game. Right guard Jon Runyan Jr. left the game but then returned. Inside linebacker Krys Barnes, who was activated this weekend from the injured reserve, was evaluated for concussion symptoms as Campbell’s replacement.
With so many injured players, expect there to be early-in-the-week roster moves so that the Packers can get their house in order to even field a team against the Cowboys.