While the Green Bay Packers are coming off of back-to-back wins in which they have covered the spread, bettors aren’t too hot on the Packers. On DraftKings, Green Bay has opened up as 5.5-point road underdogs against the Miami Dolphins next week at Hard Rock Stadium.
This is a significant jump from the 4-point line that was available before Monday Night Football, which, again, was a win for the Packers. This appears to be a case of money just coming in on one side of this line, rather than new information influencing the spread. The only major injury that Green Bay had on Monday was to “backup” running back A.J. Dillon, who was evaluated for a concussion. It has yet to be announced if Dillon is or isn’t in the concussion protocol this week.
According to VSiN’s betting splits, 70 percent of the handle (money) is on the Dolphins to cover while 74 percent of the bets are on Miami in the point spread. As far as the moneyline is concerned, 59 percent of the money and 84 percent of the bets are on the Dolphins winning outright. For reference, the Packers’ +200 moneyline carries an implied probability that Green Bay wins one-third of the time.
The total in this game is also notably high. Currently, it sits at 46.5 points. Per VSiN, 89 percent of the handle and 74 percent of the bets are on the over in this game. Only two other games, Seahawks-Chiefs and Giants-Vikings, are expected to have more points than Packers-Dolphins in Week 16.
On the season, Miami is 7-7 against the spread (ATS) while Green Bay is 6-8. As home favorites, the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS. The Packers are 2-2 as away dogs ATS in 2022.
Miami is averaging 24.6 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league on the season, but they have only averaged 21 points over their last three games. On the flip side, Green Bay has only averaged 20.5 points per game this season (tied for 20th in the NFL), but they have exploded for 28.3 points per game over their last three games. If the Packers punched in a touchdown at the end of the game against the Los Angeles Rams instead of kneeling the ball on the goal line, they’d be among the four highest-scoring NFL teams over their last three games.
Still, the questions are if Green Bay can keep up with the Dolphins’ offensive pace and if the Packers’ defense can steal a few possessions from MVP candidate Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s high-flying offense. Those are the team’s win conditions this week, as it’s hard to imagine them coming out with a win without checking those two boxes.