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One day before the NFL’s legal tampering window is set to open, seven-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady announced on Twitter that he is going to return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a third season. Brady had previously retired on the first of February following the Buccaneers’ Divisional Round loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
These past two months I’ve realized my place is still on the field and not in the stands. That time will come. But it’s not now. I love my teammates, and I love my supportive family. They make it all possible. I’m coming back for my 23rd season in Tampa. Unfinished business LFG pic.twitter.com/U0yhRKVKVm
— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) March 13, 2022
As you can imagine, the betting market for the NFC title has changed significantly with this decision. Following the announcement that Aaron Rodgers was to return to Green Bay and the trade of former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, Acme Packing Company documented DraftKings’ NFC title odds, which had the Packers’ chances at +450 (18 percent implied probability) and the Buccaneers’ at +1400 (7 percent implied probability.)
At the moment of writing this article, the Buccaneers’ odds have skyrocketed to +300 (25 percent implied probability), the best in the NFC. The Packers are the only other NFC team whose chances to win the NFC are better on the 13th of March (+350, 22 percent implied probability) by a full percentage point than they were on the 8th. The Seahawks, who were already crashing down the rankings following the Wilson trade, lost the most ground over this six-day period, going from a six percent implied probability to win the conference on the 8th to a three percent implied probability on the 13th.
Below are the NFC title odds from the 8th and 13th, including their implied probability and the implied change over this period.
NFC Title Odds
| Team | 3/8 Odds | Implied Prob. | 3/13 Odds | Implied Prob. | Implied Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 3/8 Odds | Implied Prob. | 3/13 Odds | Implied Prob. | Implied Change (%) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1400 | 7% | +300 | 25% | 18% |
| Green Bay Packers | +450 | 18% | +350 | 22% | 4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +400 | 20% | +450 | 18% | -2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +550 | 15% | +650 | 13% | -2% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +650 | 13% | +750 | 12% | -1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1000 | 9% | +1200 | 8% | -1% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1600 | 6% | +1800 | 5% | -1% |
| Washington Commanders | +2500 | 4% | +2200 | 4% | 0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1800 | 5% | +2200 | 4% | -1% |
| New Orleans Saints | +1800 | 5% | +2500 | 4% | -1% |
| Carolina Panthers | +2800 | 3% | +3500 | 3% | 0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1600 | 6% | +3000 | 3% | -3% |
| New York Giants | +5000 | 2% | +5000 | 2% | 0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3000 | 3% | +4000 | 2% | -1% |
| Chicago Bears | +3500 | 3% | +4000 | 2% | -1% |
| Detroit Lions | +8000 | 1% | +7000 | 1% | 0% |
It should be noted that these implied odds do include the vig that the sportsbook is collecting overall, which is why they do not collectively add up to 100 percent. The March 8th odds roughly add up to 120 percent while the March 13th odds roughly add up to 128 percent, despite only two teams (Buccaneers and Packers) improving their NFC title chances by a full percentage point.
The Buccaneers also currently rank second in the books’ Super Bowl odds at +750, just behind the AFC’s Buffalo Bills (+700.) The Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers are tied at third at +800 with the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos tied at fifth with +1200 listings.
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