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Player Prop Bets vs. Vikings: LET IT RIDE

With last week’s bets successful, why change strategy this time?


This week the Green Bay Packers are dogs in their own house against the Minnesota Vikings. Last week the Packers followed their defensive trends for the season and allowed Javonte Williams to set a new season-high in rushing yards. After looking at the player prop bets on DraftKings, it seems that similar assumptions to the last game are being made this week.

Bet 1: Alexander Mattison over 47.5 rushing yards (-115)

This week’s “Joe Barry will let this man eat” bet is Vikings running back Alexander Mattison eclipsing 47.5 yards on the ground. Where this differs from last week’s recommendation to take the over on the Broncos’ back, is Mattison has actually done this multiple times before.

At home against the Los Angeles Chargers and away against the Carolina Panthers, Mattison had 93 and 95 yards respectively. In last week’s victory, he missed part of the game after being taken out for examination due to an apparent head injury. He came back to finish with 8 carries for 39 yards. Mattison did not appear on the Vikings injury report this week, so whatever kept him out has apparently shown itself to be a non-issue going forward.

In a season where he’s averaging 4 yards per carry and 51.3 yards per game, it’s within reason to expect Joe Barry’s defense to allow an average performance for the 5th year back.

Bet 2: Aaron Jones over 57.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

The Packers most talented piece of the backfield has been dealing with a lingering hamstring injury and per head coach Matt LaFleur, he still isn’t up to 100%. Expect a limited workload as well as a pitch count.

However, this narrative remains par for the course after Jones saw only 23 snaps last week. In those 23 snaps, Jones amassed 11 touches. He had 8 rushes for 35 yards and 3 catches for 22. The more astute readers will already be able to see an interesting juxtaposition. His 57 cumulative yards from last week is the exact mark he has to surpass in this week’s prop.

Jones may not “be 100%” but he has completely left the injury report with no more player status designation. Expect this important piece of the LaFleur offense to see what usage he can handle and, hopefully, succeed in racking up yards.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.