Packers prop bets vs. Raiders: Fade AJ Dillon?

Now that injury situations going into Monday Night Football have cleared up a bit, let’s take a look at a couple of prop bets that are being hosted on DraftKings for the game. For my money, here are the three player props that I’d find the most value in tonight.

AJ Dillon under 47.5 rushing yards

Despite the recent news that preferred starting running back Aaron Jones will not suit up against the Raiders, I’m still fading the 47.5 rushing yards that DraftKings is giving AJ Dillon. So far this season, Dillon has posted rushing totals of 19, 55, 33 and 11 — with Jones either partially or fully out of the rotation in each of those contests. Dillon’s best yards per carry mark in a game in 2023 has been just a 3.7-yard average, which came against the Falcons when the team jumped to a 12-point lead.

Dillon just doesn’t seem to have it this season. He’s had opportunities to show that he’s more than a backup who is a good pass-blocking back this year, and it’s gotten the team nowhere. Hopefully, I’m wrong. A month into the season, though, we have to start following the numbers and accepting who the players are.

Davante Adams under 78.5 receiving yards

After missing the vast majority of practice this week, former Packers receiver Davante Adams will reportedly push through his shoulder injury to suit up against his former team. The assumption is that cornerback Jaire Alexander, who is also expected to play through a back injury, will travel a bit with Adams like he did against Justin Jefferson last season.

This game is going to be gassed up as Adams going head-to-head with his former team, but the circumstances aren’t great. Outside of Adams, there are no great threats on the Las Vegas offense — considering that running back Josh Jacobs is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry this season. The Packers, for all the hell they receive about their run defense, have actually been pretty good in stopping passing games in 2023.

A banged-up Adams on a one-dimensional offense going up against a solid pass defense with extra rest? I think I’m going to lean the under here.

Dontayvion Wicks over 7.5 receiving yards

I’m going to sound like a broken record, but Dontayvion Wicks is going to have his breakout game eventually. On the season, Wicks has played 147 snaps for the Packers’ offense. Even when Christian Watson returned to the lineup in Week 4, Wicks held steady by playing 58 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.

He’s playing snaps. He’s getting open. Weird things keep happening, execution-wise, on plays designed to get Wicks the ball, though. The best example of this was the throwback pass that Jordan Love slipped on a few weeks back, which was designed to have Wicks running open on a crossing route.

Wicks is averaging 14.2 yards per reception this season. He’s playing half the snaps on offense and only needs one catch! Join me on the Wicks bandwagon.