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Updated 2024 NFL Draft Order (post-Week 10)

The Green Bay Packers own the ultimate tie-breaker, a low strength of schedule, even if they’re two games behind the Carolina Panthers for the top pick.

NFL Draft 2015 Exhibit Photo By Raymond Boyd/Getty Images

Following the Green Bay Packers’ 23-19 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the green and gold have now lost five of their last six games. With a three-game schedule of the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs coming, there’s a pretty good chance their record won’t improve — at least by much — in the next few weeks.

With all of that in mind, I’m sure some of you are wondering, “Where do the Packers pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if it were held today?” Below is the current first-round draft order for next year’s draft, through Sunday Night Football in Week 10. As a reminder, playoff teams’ draft slots are slated by where their team finishes in the postseason — which is why the current qualifiers are split out.

Current 2024 First-Round Draft Order

  1. Carolina Panthers 1-8 (owned by Chicago Bears)
  2. New York Giants 2-8
  3. New England Patriots 2-8
  4. Arizona Cardinals 2-8
  5. Chicago Bears 3-7
  6. Green Bay Packers 3-6
  7. Los Angeles Rams 3-6
  8. Tennessee Titans 3-6
  9. Denver Broncos 3-5
  10. Atlanta Falcons 4-5
  11. Washington Commanders 4-6
  12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-5
  13. New York Jets 4-5
  14. Los Angeles Chargers 4-5
  15. Indianapolis Colts 5-5
  16. Las Vegas Raiders 5-5
  17. Buffalo Bills 5-4
  18. Cincinnati Bengals 5-4

Playoff Teams

One of the most interesting things here is that six of the top seven picks are currently owned by teams in the NFC, which is having a terrible year outside of the top contenders in the conference. In the remaining eight weeks of the season, the Packers will play the Giants, Panthers and Bears, who all currently are expected to pick ahead of them in April’s draft. Those games will be crucial, in terms of draft order.

Another factor in draft order will be strength of schedule (SOS), which is used as a tie-breaker if teams have similar records. The reason why the Packers are expected to pick first among the NFL’s three 3-6 teams is due to their SOS. Only the Saints, Dolphins, Falcons, Cowboys and Eagles have a worse season-long SOS, including future opponents, than the Packers do right now. At the moment, four of those five teams would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Four of those teams are also members of the NFC.

The race for the top pick in the draft is going to come down to how the NFC finishes out for the remainder of the season, as these below-average squads are going to have to play each other eventually. Someone is going to have to win these games. The Packers are two games behind the Panthers — whose first-round pick is currently owned by the Bears — but they will likely have a tie-breaker over any other squad that matches their record by the end of the season.