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The Packers have a 1 percent chance at the 1st overall pick in 2024

With so many underperforming NFC teams, on average, Green Bay is expected to select around 9th overall in April’s draft.

2022 NFL Draft - Round 1 Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

With the Green Bay Packers losing their fifth game in six tries, get ready to hear a lot about where the Packers might end up picking in the first round of April’s draft. At the moment, Green Bay is slotted in the sixth spot of the 2024 draft, if the season were to end today, but the NFC is very fluid — as the conference currently owns six of the top seven selections in the draft.

According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the Packers are one of the few teams that are relevant in the race for the first overall pick, though. Per ESPN Analytics, the Chicago Bears have a 41.8 percent chance of owning the first pick, the New York Giants are at 38.4 percent, the Arizona Cardinals are at 12 percent, the New England Patriots — the top AFC team on the list — are at 4.8 percent and the Packers are projected to own the top pick 1.2 percent of the time. Chicago’s number includes both of the first-round picks that they own, their original 2024 first-round selection and the Carolina Panthers’ selection.

What’s interesting here is that even though the Packers are ranked sixth overall in both the current 2024 NFL Draft order and ESPN’s top pick handicapping, ESPN also claims that Green Bay’s average projected draft slot is 9.4, meaning that on average they’ll miss out on the top blue-chip prospects in the class. If you’re hoping for one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft or Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the Packers are still on the outside looking in right now.

Every game is going to be important for the Packers, from a draft perspective, but three remaining games stand out as pivot points for their draft position: Week 14 on the road against the New York Giants, Week 16 at the Carolina Panthers and the season-finale at Lambeau Field against the Chicago Bears. All of these desperate NFC teams are going to start playing each other soon, which will clear up who will own the first overall pick in 2024 pretty quickly.