The Green Bay Packers won a football game and we’re going to celebrate it. With that being said, the Los Angeles Chargers shot themselves in the foot several times in Sunday’s game — with the most obvious example being the fourth-quarter dropped pass to Quentin Johnston.
In this episode, APC’s Justis Mosqueda and Pack-A-Day Podcast’s Andy Herman explain how the Chargers left around 20 points on the board against the Packers, which almost certainly swung the game. According to the NFL’s football ops data scientist Tom Bliss, Green Bay is now the “luckiest” team in the league after coming out as victors against the Chargers. With help from that Johnston drop, the Packers have now gained the second-most win probability added of any NFL team based on their opponent’s dropped passes. For perspective, Green Bay was below the league average in that stat prior to last week’s action.
2023 Net WPA by Luck thru week 11:— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) November 21, 2023
- GB benefited from five 10% or more WPA dropped passes by LAC
- KC dropped TD with 1:50 left vs PHI highest WPA play of wk 11 (+42.4% WPA for PHI)
- DEN's fumble going out of bounds with 1:30 left vs MIN worth +21.8% for DEN and -21.8% for MIN pic.twitter.com/vgx03kZ5OU
Aside from the general takeaways from the game, the other major topic that Herman and Mosqueda touched on was the quick turnaround for the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving and the very fluid running back room. With Aaron Jones and Emmanuel Wilson potentially missing time, the Packers signed James Robinson to the practice squad and plucked Patrick Taylor off of the Patriots’ practice squad to have him rejoin the 53-man roster. The Thanksgiving opener could get funky, as the only player that we’re sure is going to be active in the Packers’ backfield for the game is AJ Dillon.
- 0:00: Thumbs up for beating a real QB
- 6:00: The receivers got targets evenly distributed
- 10:00: The Packers did get a little lucky
- 13:30: Would making the playoffs even be fun?
- 20:00: Moves at the running back position
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