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Packers prop bets vs. Saints: Fade the run game

AJ Dillon against a good run defense? The Packers will need to throw to score touchdowns this week.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers will be out a bunch of key pieces against the New Orleans Saints today, as their only healthy inactive is going to be rookie safety Anthony Johnson Jr. The injured inactives include running back Aaron Jones (hamstring), receiver Christian Watson (hamstring), left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee), left guard Elgton Jenkins (knee), cornerback Jaire Alexander (back) and safety Zayne Anderson (hamstring). Of that group, all but Anderson are starters.

Since the announcement of these inactives, the point spread on DraftKings has swung from a one-point line in favor of the Packers to a one-point line in favor of the Saints. With all the info now on the table heading into the game, let’s take a look at a few prop bets that look interesting over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tony Jones Jr. Over 20.5 Rushing Yards

Both Luke Hubbard of Canal Street Chronicles and Seth Galina of Pro Football Focus told us this week that they expect that Tony Jones Jr. will be the primary back for the Saints this week, as starter Alvin Kamara is serving a suspension and backup running back Jamaal Williams was recently placed on the injured reserve for a hamstring injury. For some reason, DK still is leaning toward Kendre MIller — a rookie who missed the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury — as New Orleans’ number one rushing threat.

Dontayvion Wicks Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Based on how the Packers are using their receivers, you can tell they really like what they have in Dontayvion Wicks. While he didn’t get many opportunities for targets against the Bears in Week 1, last week’s touchdown performance with a long of 32 yards should be considered the expected norm for Wicks moving forward — as long as Watson is out of the lineup.

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

This one is a little riskier, but I still like it. Jordan Love has recorded two three-touchdown games to start the season, with some of those passes coming on manufactured plays like last week’s Jayden Reed jet sweep. Head coach Matt LaFleur said this week that quarterbacks like those “handoffs” to be passes because it helps them on the stat sheet.

If the Packers are thinking about Love’s stats, that’s one reason to make the bet. Another reason is the fact that running back AJ Dillon has been struggling to get any sort of push out of the backfield. At the goal line, when the defense is keying in on the run game, that means he’s been kept out of the end zone. It’s not like Dillon is breaking long runs for a score, either. On top of that, the Saints’ run defense is very good.