Due to all of the injuries that the Green Bay Packers are dealing with, the team that you’ll see playing against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football is going to be a one-of-one experience. The squad will probably look nothing like the one that will be playing against the Lions in their second matchup of the season on Thanksgiving. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few props on DraftKings that make sense for the savvy Packers bettor, considering the circumstances.
WR Dontayvion Wicks Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
This is my bet of the week. Wicks has been given plenty of opportunities for big plays over the last two weeks, but inaccurate balls from Jordan Love and/or general offensive mistakes have kept him from capitalizing on those situations. Due to that, he’s turned just 12 targets into just six receptions (14.2 yards per catch) and four first downs.
Still, Wicks is on the field significantly more than this line suggests. In total, he’s been on the field for 60.3 percent of the Packers’ total offensive snaps this season, more than second-round rookie Jayden Reed (more on him later). Only receiver Romeo Doubs (71.4 percent) is outpacing him at the position.
With Christian Watson (hamstring) listed as questionable, the assumption is that Watson will be on a pitch count on Thursday — if he even does suit up. At some point, Wicks is going to have a breakout game for Green Bay. I’m betting that it’s coming this week against the Lions’ less-than-stellar cornerback unit.
WR Jayden Reed Under 37.5 Receiving Yards
If someone is undervalued, someone else is probably overvalued. That’s why I’m fading Jayden Reed here. Wicks and Reed are playing a similar amount of snaps, and Wicks is the player running more downfield routes.
With the way the Lions’ defense is constructed, too, Reed might be at a disadvantage. Reed’s snaps have come almost exclusively out of the slot this season and the best performer in Detroit’s secondary has been second-round rookie Brian Branch — who plays the slot for the squad. So far, Branch has only allowed 50 passing yards in coverage this season for a 4.5 yards per completion average, despite playing 79 of the team’s defensive snaps.
In short, the Packers should be thinking about attacking the Lions’ outside cornerbacks, not the shallow areas of the field in this game.