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Player Prop Bets vs Cowboys: The Wild Cards of Wild Card Weekend

Aaron Jones is a lesson on correlation vs causation.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL -USA TODAY Sports

We did it folks! We’re here for a Wild Card game with the youngest roster to ever see the postseason. The Green Bay Packers braved some intense weather to travel down to Tay-Hass and take on the Dallas Cowboys in the home of a $40 million TV that’s only good for laggy Madden games and getting in the way of punts.

The over/under for this Packers’ team record was 7.5 at the beginning of the season. They managed to get to 9 and squeak into a Wild Card spot. A lot of those wins came in the back half of the season as the offense started to find a rhythm.

It’s through the power of the offense (and hoping Joe Barry doesn’t skid mark his pantaloons in the face of the NFL’s leading TD thrower) that the Packers can carve a path to victory. The oddsmakers over at DraftKings have quite a few interesting prop bets to look at for just this very occasion.

Bet 1: Aaron Jones OVER 17.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

It’s no secret that during his tenure in Green Bay, Aaron Jones has often been the straw that stirs the drink for the offense. In his career the team is 23-4 when Jones receives 20 or more touches. This season, the team is 4-0 when the previous mark is hit.

Jones being in his bag is a huge boon to the offense, but it is not a guaranteed victory. Correlation is not causation. Just because the Packers do very well when Jones sees the ball, doesn’t mean that the game is a race to get him 20 carries. It’s not like the game gets called immediately after his 21st touch.

Grumpy statistics lesson aside, expect Jones to get a LOT of looks against a Dallas team that hasn’t been stellar against the run.

Bet 2: Jayden Reed OVER 4.5 Receptions (+114)

Jayden Reed has emerged as a force within the Packers passing attack that has done nothing but gain momentum for weeks on end. It’s not 100% if Christian Watson will be in the lineup, but even if he is expect a limited workload. He thought he would play last week but was, by his own admission, 75-80% on the day.

Expect Reed to get the lion’s share of the targets on the day.

Bet 3: Dontayvion Wicks OVER 2.5 Receptions (-175)

HOW COULD I NOT MENTION IT? YOU’RE MY BOY WICKS! THAT STUTTER STEP RELEASE! THE SMOOTH ROUTES!

We’ve got some free football coming that almost no one expected. Enjoy the ride, partners.