The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us. The Chicago Bears walk in to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. According to DraftKings, the Packers opened as and still remain three-point favorites. With the line not moving throughout the week, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting player-specific prop bets.
Bet 1: Khalil Herbert OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
You already knew this one was coming. Joe Barry is known for giving up career games as a defensive coordinator. In week 10, the Over/Under for Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards was 31.5. Barry’s defense gave Warren the first 100-yard game of his career. Last week Khalil Herbert gashed the Atlanta Falcons for 6.9 (ni.ce) yards per carry on his way to 124 total.
The things working against Herbert that drop his over-under include: being listed as questionable with a back injury and the Bears are without starting center Lucas Patrick. The recognizable name for Packers fans being out shouldn’t hamper expectations too much.
If the Bears get 50% of Khalil Herbert against 100% of Joe Barry, expect him to go off on the ground.
Bet 2: DJ Moore OVER 5.5 Receptions (+124)
Last week Justin Fields “played well” in a game where he failed to match an average performance for the Packers’ Jordan Love. Most of his production quite literally came because DJ Moore is very, very good at football.
Moore had 9 catches for 159 yards and a touchdown. This accounted for 57% of Fields’ production through the air. Moore is going to be targeted early and often. This should be especially true with CB1 Jaire Alexander having to shake off some rust after his suspension, as well as having a few sub-par performances while in the lineup this season.
The two ‘Alentine corners should easily handle the rest of the Bears’ lackluster receiving corps. Should Jaire have another down day or should Joe Barry fail to adjust his coverage, Moore will continue to be the focal point of Field’s field vision.
It all comes down to this game, Packers faithful. Should the defense actually rise to the occasion, like last week, the team has a good chance of winning their way into a playoff spot. Try to enjoy the game, but if Joe Barry ruins the team’s chances of making the postseason, you can take solace in an “I told you so” attitude while you use your prop bet winnings to cover your ever-expanding bar tab.