Kenny Clark’s contract could be ripe for an extension in 2023, not just a restructure

For years now, the refrain around Kenny Clark is that he has been a one-man defensive line. The Green Bay Packers have largely struggled to surround the seven-year veteran with high-quality, consistent talent, Clark’s own performance has been up and down over the past several years.

One can observe the defensive line issues most clearly by looking at the team’s statistics in run defense. The Packers have allowed at least 4.5 yards per carry and have finished no better than 21st in the NFL in that category in each of the past four seasons — the entire Matt LaFleur era. DVOA tells a similar story, with the Packers ranking 27th, 18th, 28th, and 31st from 2019 through 2022 in order.

Although Clark himself said he felt that he was inconsistent in the run game in 2022, this is certainly not a Clark problem. He has been one of the best nose tackles in the NFL for most of his career, and two Pro Bowl appearances speak to that. Furthermore, offenses are able to isolate a single high-quality player on defense if there are weak spots around him. This tweet from Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz is talking about Dexter Lawrence and the New York Giants, but you could just as easily insert Clark’s name and the Packers instead:

The reason for this discussion is to acknowledge the fact that the Packers have a really, really good player at the core of their defensive line and that they have surrounded that player with severely limited pieces. Because of that — and because Clark is not yet 28 years old — the team can and should realistically view Clark as one of its building-block players over the next half-decade.

However, Clark’s current contract, which he signed during training camp before 2020, his fifth season, runs just another two years through the end of the 2024 season. He then has two void years that the Packers added on to the deal in a salary cap-related restructure before 2022, when the franchise converted about $13.6 million in base salary and roster bonus money into a signing bonus.

Now, the Packers face a similar dilemma with Clark, who is set to carry a base salary of $13 million and a cap hit of nearly $24 million in 2023. The team realistically has two options here: continue kicking the cap money on Clark’s contract into 2025, when the deal voids, or work on a contract extension now to try to head much of that off while adding real years onto the deal.

Restructure

Let’s start with a simple restructure. Here’s a look at Clark’s current contract:

2023

Base salary: $13 million
Roster bonus: $2 million
Per-game roster bonuses: $550k
Workout bonus: $700k
Prorated signing bonus cap hit: $7.723 million

Total cap hit: $23.973 million

2024

Base salary: $15.55 million
Per-game roster bonuses: $750k
Workout bonus: $700k
Prorated signing bonus cap hit: $7.723 million

Total cap hit: $23.973 million

2025

Void year accelerated signing bonus cap hit: $5.446 million

Those are some huge cap hits for any defensive lineman, but particularly for an interior lineman. Clark’s 2023 cap hit puts him fourth among interior linemen behind Leonard Williams (NYG), Chris Jones (KC), and Aaron Donald (LAR); his 2024 number has him second behind only Donald.

So let’s say that the Packers want to dump as much money as possible out of the team’s 2023 cap number. That would involve restructuring the maximum amount of base salary and roster bonus money into a signing bonus and adding a third void year to spread this money out. That would leave Clark with a minimum $1.165 million base salary for 2023, giving him $13.835 million in a signing bonus and spreading it out over five years. That max restructure would yield the following for the upcoming season:

2023

Base salary: $1.165 million
Per-game roster bonuses: $550k
Workout bonus: $700k
Prorated signing bonus cap hit: $10.49 million

Total cap hit: $12.905 million

That is a reduction of $11.068 million in cap charge for 2023, which the team would be able to use along with other moves to get under next season’s cap. However, that would inflate Clark’s 2024 cap hit to $26.74 million and leave the Packers with a whopping $13.747 million in dead cap in 2025 when the deal voids.

Extension

Instead, a true contract extension might be the way to go, especially with Clark still playing quality football and not turning 30 years old until October of 2025. In this case, the player who may be most comparable to Clark who has recently signed a new deal is Jonathan Allen of the Washington Commanders, so let’s use his contract as a jumping-off point.

Like Clark, Allen is a two-time Pro Bowler and just finished his age-27 season. Allen is more of a 3-technique or 5-technique tackle than Clark, who primarily plays nose tackle, but Clark did start playing in the B and C gaps more late in the season when Dean Lowry went down and T.J. Slaton got more playing time on the nose. Allen signed his deal just before the 2021 season, however, and his two Pro Bowl appearances came afterwards. That and the increase in the salary cap suggest that a similar extension for Clark would be worth a bit more per year than the $18 million new-money average Allen received on his new 4-year extension.

Indeed, Clark’s own new deal in 2020 saw him get $17.5 million per year in new money, so something around $20 million per year on top of his existing deal seems like the baseline. However, because Clark is already signed for 2023 and 2024, a three-year extension to extend out to five years total would be the most that would make sense.

Historically, the Packers only guarantee the signing bonus on a contract, with that encompassing about 30-35% of the total amount of new money. In this case, a 3-year, $60 million extension could come with a signing bonus of $22.5 million, which comes in at 37.5% of the total value while giving Clark about $9 million more at signing than a straight restructure of his current deal.

This extension could then rework Clark’s 2023 deal similarly to above, just with a somewhat higher bonus that eats into the cap savings slightly. As a result, his 2023 contract would look like the following:

2023

Base salary: $1.165 million
Per-game roster bonuses: $550k
Workout bonus: $700k
Signing bonus: $22.5 million
Total prorated signing bonus cap hit: $12.223 million

Total cap hit: $14.638 million

Green Bay can then adjust the structure of Clark’s 2024 base salary to allow for some additional roster bonus restructuring and keep his 2025/26/27 years tied up in base to maintain flexibility should Clark drop off unexpectedly, particularly after he hits 30 in 2025.

With this structure, the Packers get some cap relief for 2023 — not as much as with a pure restructure, but still $9.335 million in savings — while extending Clark’s deal out into just his age-32 season. They also get to maintain the spread of dead money they have already extended over 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, Clark gets a bigger signing bonus check now and some level of added job security for at least 2025 as the Packers commit to him through whatever transition period is coming over the next few years.

A reworked deal makes sense for both sides. The burden then should fall on the Packers to find Clark some quality running mates to play alongside him.