So that whole "START ALL THE PACKERS" thing? It didn't work out quite like I had anticipated. Cedric Benson got hurt early, Jermichael Finley had a couple of drops and got hurt in the second half, and Jordy Nelson can't seem to break free of press coverage and make tough catches. This week, against a tough Texans defense, you can expect that I'll be much more conservative with my projections.
HOU: RB Arian Foster, TE Owen Daniels
Foster should have been a top-3 pick in your draft, and rightfully so. Shocker: he's the top-ranked running back in most formats. He's Mister Consistency to start the year, with at least 14 points in each game. The Packers had some issues containing Donald Brown last week, and with B.J. Raji likely to be a game-time decision, the middle of the defense may be there for Foster's taking.
Daniels, the former Badger, has also been remarkably consistent this season, and has developed a terrific rapport with Matt Schaub. Daniels has a touchdown in each of his last three games and has only one game below 8 standard fantasy points (Week 2, 4 points). He's a great bet in PPR leagues as well, recording at least four catches in all but one game. Add in the fact that the Packers have allowed three tight end touchdowns on the season and have been burned by the position in the past two weeks and you have a recipe for a great day for Daniels.
Start with confidence:
GB: QB Aaron Rodgers
HOU: WR Andre Johnson, Defense
The Texans' defense has been very stingy to opposing QBs in terms of fantasy numbers, but that's misleading: Peyton Manning is the only decent QB they've played so far, as Ryan Tannehill, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Mark Sanchez don't really inspire much fear in opposing defenses. Manning had a good day with 330 yards and two scores, and that seems likely to be the kind of line Rodgers will end up with this week, certainly good enough to be your starter.
If not for Reggie Wayne's big day, I might be less inclined to advocate starting Johnson here, but that memory is fresh and painful. Johnson's been waiting for a big day since Week 1, and if the Packers can't keep Tramon Williams on him on every snap, that could well come this Sunday night.
The Texans' defense has shown a great ability to get to the quarterback, led by J.J. Watt. They have forced at least one turnover in each game and average a little over three sacks per game; unless the Packers' offensive line has a miracle up their sleeve, Houston will get to Rodgers a few times on Sunday.
GB: WR Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Defense
HOU: QB Matt Schaub
I don't know if I really trust any of the Packers' receivers this week. James Jones has been the go-to guy so far this year, with four touchdowns in the past two games, but he's only averaged four catches per game. Jordy Nelson still has the most targets, and he's more likely to break out with a big yardage game than Jones. The Packers' D needs to start catching the balls that hit them in the hands, otherwise they're likely to go from a top-10 fantasy defense to a second-tier unit.
Schaub would be a great choice for a bye week fill-in, but with the Packers' struggles the past two weeks, it's possible that he could put up 20 points this week. If your normal starter doesn't have a great matchup, I'd definitely give Schaub a long look.
GB: WR Randall Cobb
Cobb is the one weapon that I've seen the Texans most concerned about, and he showed his open-field skills on his touchdown against the Colts. Get him the ball in space and let him run. He's a decent fill-in option this week.
GB: RB Alex Green, TE Jermichael Finley
We all know about Finley's drops, but with Brian Cushing out, this could be a chance for Finley to do some damage over the middle - if he plays. Green on the other hand should get starter's reps out of the backfield, and he's a lock to be the third-down back over James Starks. The likelihood that he'll be involved in the passing game makes him the only Packers back worth considering this week. I really think that he's got a chance to break off a long score, but he could easily vanish from Mike McCarthy's playbook if the running game does the same.